USD/INR Extends Gains Ahead of US CPI Data

The Indian rupee (INR) continued its upward trend on Tuesday. Risk appetite in global markets, inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and strengthening domestic markets provided support to the positive movement in the Indian rupee. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay a rate cut due to improving U.S. labor market data and a strong U.S. economy could boost USD/INR and limit the downside for USD/INR.

Market participants will be watching Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March for new clues on the trajectory of U.S. inflation. Monthly CPI is expected to slow to 0.3% in March from 0.4% in the previous month. Stronger-than-expected data in the March report could dampen expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in June, while weaker data could fuel rate cut speculation. In India, markets will be closed on Thursday for the holy month of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr. India’s March CPI report and February industrial production report will be released on Friday.

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