Ella 
The Indian rupee (INR) on Monday recovered some losses on the back of a weaker dollar and falling crude oil prices. Speculation is growing that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay a rate cut until September as inflation is higher than expected and remains above the Fed’s 2% target. On the other hand, analysts at Morgan Stanley expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to be unlikely to cut interest rates this fiscal year due to strong economic growth in India. The Reserve Bank of India’s “higher rates for the longer term” stance is likely to support the Indian rupee and limit USD/INR upside. However, rising U.S. Treasury yields and rebounding oil prices could drag the local currency lower.
Looking ahead, investors will keep a close eye on changes in U.S. ADP payrolls, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision. On Friday, investors will focus on April employment data, including nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. In India, the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April will be released on Thursday.
