Dollar Rises As Weak Retail Sales Push Australian Dollar Lower

Australia’s domestic retail sales data released on Tuesday was lower than expected, and the Australian dollar continued its downward revision. Retail sales are a key leading indicator directly linked to the outlook for inflation and growth and could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance on the trajectory of interest rates.

Domestic inflation data released last week was higher than expected, raising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may postpone an interest rate cut, and the Australian dollar may regain its footing. In addition, the Financial Review reported that Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest mortgage lender, has revised its forecast for the timing of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first interest rate cut and now expects only one rate cut in November.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s performance against six major currencies, rebounded after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials that an immediate interest rate cut was not needed.

Traders are expected to await Wednesday’s U.S. ADP employment changes and ISM manufacturing PMI, as well as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. These events can impact market sentiment and U.S. dollar trends.

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