EUR/USD: Managing To Hold Above 200 Hourly SMA, Eyes On Eurozone Inflation And Fed Rate Decision

EUR/USD encountered some selling during the Asian session on Tuesday and gave back some of the previous day’s gains amid fresh buying in the greenback. However, spot prices remain within the familiar range of the past week or so, currently trading around the 1.0700 integer mark.

The Fed’s hawkish outlook could help revive demand for the dollar. This, coupled with bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in June, has become a key factor putting some downward pressure on EUR/USD. However, traders appeared reluctant to bet aggressively ahead of Tuesday’s euro zone consumer inflation data and the outcome of Wednesday’s two-day U.S. Federal Monetary Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting.

From a technical perspective, any subsequent decline is more likely to find suitable support around the 1.0690-1.0685 confluence, which encompasses the 200 hourly simple moving average (SMA) and the uptrend line from a week ago. A break below this support could spark some technical selling and drag EUR/USD towards last week’s swing low around 1.0625 and then towards the 1.0600 mark or the yearly low hit earlier this month.

Conversely, bulls will need to wait for sustained strength above the 1.0730-1.0740 supply zone before further upside. By then, EUR/USD is likely to accelerate its upward move, reclaiming the 1.0800 round mark before climbing to the 1.0835-1.0840 intermediate mark and the monthly peak near 1.0885. This is followed by the 1.0900 mark, above which the near-term bias will shift towards bullish traders.

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