USD/CAD remains confused as focus shifts to Fed policy

USD/CAD was mixed amid cautious sentiment ahead of Fed policy.

The Canadian dollar is expected to strengthen due to higher oil prices.

USD/CAD is in a symmetrical triangle pattern, which indicates contraction in volatility.

USD/CAD is struggling to determine direction as investors await the Fed’s rate decision for further guidance. The Canadian dollar fluctuated in a wide range in a restricted area as investors were uncertain about the September monetary policy guidance and could not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting.

European S&P 500 futures were volatile as the market remained cautious on Fed policy. Beyond that, corporate earnings reports will also keep stocks buoyant. Amid the upbeat market sentiment, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) pulled back sharply to around 101.10.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is expected to strengthen due to higher oil prices. Oil demand has been boosted by heated discussions about China’s new stimulus plan. Notably, Canada is a major oil exporter to the U.S., and higher oil prices supported the Canadian dollar.

The 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3185 is sticky for the asset, showing a directionless performance.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is trading in the 40.00-60.00 range, which suggests that investors are awaiting potential triggers for further moves.

If USD/CAD continues to rise steadily above the July 24 high of 1.3230, it will push USD/CAD towards the July 3 high of 1.3273 and the July 10 high of 1.3304.

Conversely, a break below the July 25 low of 1.3147 would open the way to the July 20 low of 1.3120 and the July 14 low of 1.3093.

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