24-hour view: Yesterday we emphasized that GBP ‘could rebound further to 1.2950, but it is unlikely to hit the important resistance of 1.3000. ’ In line with our expectations, GBP rebounded further (as high as 1.2960). Upside momentum has improved slightly and GBP could rise to 1.2975 today before the risk of a pullback rises, but it is still unlikely to threaten the important resistance at 1.3000. On the downside, if the pound falls below 1.2880 (slightly supported at 1.2900), it means that the current upward pressure has eased.
Next 1-3 weeks: Our update from yesterday (July 26th, market price 1.2895) is still valid. As we have highlighted, recent downward pressure has subsided. Currently we expect GBP to be stuck in a range trade, possibly between 1.2800-1.3100.