Will the ECB commit to another rate hike later this year?
The ECB will raise rates by another 25bp today, but we do not expect the ECB to strongly commit to another hike at its next policy meeting in September.
The ECB will still leave the door open for a final rate hike later this year, but will stress that future policy decisions will depend on data. The ECB is still likely to raise rates one last time in September, partly because the ECB has been focusing of late on core inflation and wage growth, both of which are expected to remain uncomfortably strong through the summer.
If the ECB does not firmly commit to another rate hike in September, the euro could sell off and drag EUR/USD back to the 1.1000 level. However, the euro should weaken further against other G10 currencies today.