USD/INR Recovers On Middle East Geopolitical Risks

The Indian rupee (INR) pared gains on Monday despite weakness in the US dollar (USD). The Indian rupee closed at a two-month high of 83.10 on Friday, posting its biggest weekly gain in more than five months, helped by massive inflows into Indian equities. Sustained dollar inflows into domestic equities are likely to boost the Indian rupee in the short term. However, rising crude oil prices and safe-haven inflows are likely to boost USD/INR and be a boon for USD/INR amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Investors will be closely watching the preliminary U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 on Thursday and the final personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for April on Friday. In India, GDP growth data for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be released on Friday. If India’s economic growth is weaker than expected, this could put pressure on the Indian rupee and limit the downside for the pair.

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