Yen trades weaker than if BOJ takes credible action
BoJ intervening because the new de facto pain threshold is 0.6%? Or are yields rising too fast for the BoJ?
We can only hope that, over time, we will learn from experience how the BoJ works. In this case, we can only “blame” the BOJ for those interventions and market volatility that would have been unnecessary had the BOJ communicated its policy clearly. However, I worry that by then BOJ officials will have new ideas and the whole game will start all over again.
Amidst this chaos, the yen will trade weaker and stronger at other times. Of course, it’s completely impossible to predict the timing of these moves, but it’s safe to say that, overall, the yen will trade weaker than if the BoJ were to act in a credible manner. A central bank fearful of deflation (despite core inflation at 4.2%) might like this. But in the long run, a weaker yen means Japan is getting poorer.