Ella 
The first round of French elections has led to the euro rising above 1.07 and the dollar index falling below 106. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are heading towards 162 and 173/174 respectively and could rise without any intervention from the Bank of Japan. AUD and GBP continue to trade sideways between 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28. USD/CNY above 7.26 still has the potential to rise towards 7.28. EUR/INR may trade in the 89.00-90/91 area for a while. USD/INR may continue to trade in the 83.67-83.40/30 range in the near term. Stay tuned for the US ISM manufacturing data to be released today.
US Treasury yields rose sharply last Friday. If the rebound continues, there is a possibility of further gains this week to test its resistance level. The price action thereafter needs to be closely watched. US PCE growth rate in June fell to 2.56% YoY from 2.68% in May. Rising yields in Germany are in line with our expectations. Outlook is bullish and further gains are expected from here. 10-year and 5-year German bond yields are gradually moving higher, in line with our expectations. They may rise further this week.
Dow Jones Industrials, German DAX and Shanghai Composite Index look range-bound. Nifty Index slightly retreated from its all-time high of 24174. It must rise above 24200 to strengthen the bullish momentum. Otherwise it will fall further. Nikkei 225 Index continues to rise and remains bullish in the short term.
Crude oil prices are range-bound. Gold, silver and copper have resistance above. Gold may trade sideways below resistance for a while. While silver and copper still have the possibility of falling if resistance is blocked. Natural gas has fallen to 2.50 and if it holds, it will rise to 2.70-2.75 in the short term.
