EUR/GBP rebounded to 0.8440 in early European trading on Friday. Sterling (GBP) fell as bets rose for a rate cut by the Bank of England (BOE) next week.
Analysts at UBS pointed out that the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates for the first time by 25 basis points in early August and another 25 basis points in November, bringing interest rates to 4.75% by the end of 2024.
On the other hand, falling business confidence in France and Germany has raised the possibility of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in September, amid warnings that the euro zone’s two largest economies are about to enter a recession. On Thursday, the business confidence index released by the German IFO Institute fell to 87 in July from 88.6 in June, the lowest level since February and lower than the 88.9 predicted by economists.
Market participants will get further clues from the preliminary second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) readings for the euro zone. Eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter.