GBP/USD holds on to 100-day EMA, but bullish confidence scant

GBP/USD is once again showing some resilience below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and attracting dip buying near the more than one-month low hit earlier this week. However, GBP/USD has struggled to extend this rise and is now only consolidating slightly around the 1.2700 round-figure mark.

The U.S. dollar (USD) is again under selling pressure as bets on more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to rise, triggering a fresh decline in U.S. Treasury yields. This in turn provided some support for the GBP/USD pair, although the easing in risk tone helped limit losses in safe-haven currencies and acted as a headwind.

Market sentiment remains fragile amid growing concerns about China’s economic slowdown and a potential recession in the United States. In addition, geopolitical risks arising from conflicts in the Middle East have also weakened investors’ preference for high-risk assets. Coupled with the dovish expectations of the Bank of England (BOE), the trend of the pound against the US dollar has been limited.

In fact, last Thursday the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, to 5.0% from a 16-year high. The market will also cut interest rates two more times before the end of this year. In addition to this, the ongoing unrest in the UK also requires GBP bulls to remain cautious and prepare for an upward move in the GBP/USD pair.

There is no relevant market economic data to be released in the UK on Thursday, while US economic data usually includes weekly jobless claims in early North American trading. These data, along with US bond yields and broader risk sentiment, will drive dollar demand and provide some momentum for the GBP/USD pair.

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