EUR/USD rises modestly, lacks bullish momentum ahead of U.S. payrolls

EUR/USD has attracted some buying for a second straight session but lacks bullish momentum.

Active risk appetite prompted profit-taking in the greenback, providing some support for EUR/USD.

Rising U.S. bond yields should keep the dollar from falling and EUR/USD from gains ahead of the non-farm payrolls data.

The EUR/USD pair rose for a second day on Friday, looking to extend an overnight rebound from the 1.0900 mark, the lowest level since July 7. EUR/USD is currently trading just above the mid-1.0900 level, up more than 0.10% on the day and finding support from weak demand for the US dollar (USD).

In fact, the U.S. dollar index remained on the defensive below a four-week high hit on Thursday, amid some profit-taking ahead of the key monthly U.S. jobs data. The much-anticipated non-farm payrolls will be released later on Friday, which will affect the market’s expectations for the Fed’s future rate hike path. This in turn will play a key role in driving demand for the greenback in the near term and help investors determine where EUR/USD goes next.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures maintained a generally positive bias that is seen as pushing the benchmark safe-haven dollar. That said, the prospect of further Fed tightening should help prevent the dollar from consolidating sharply lower. In fact, upcoming U.S. macro data showing a remarkably resilient economy has also boosted expectations that the Fed will have plenty of room to hike rates further. That kept the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level since late October 2022 and should be a tailwind for the dollar.

Beyond that, the prospect that the European Central Bank (ECB) may finally pause its historic rate hike cycle soon, combined with the looming risk of a recession, could deter traders from making aggressive bullish bets on EUR/USD . This could further dampen the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that EUR/USD’s recent pullback from July’s 17-month high is over. However, EUR/USD has managed to hold above the 100-day simple moving average for now.

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