Ella 
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24-hour view: After the Australian dollar fell sharply to 0.6528 on Wednesday, we highlighted yesterday that “Aussie has a chance to break below 0.6500.” Our expectations were missed as the Australian dollar rebounded after falling to 0.6514. Oversold conditions and tentative signs of slowing momentum point to low downside risks. AUD may trade in the range of 0.6530-0.6595 today.
Next 1-3 weeks: Our view remains unchanged from yesterday (August 3, market price 0.6535). As we highlighted, while the Aussie was heavily oversold at the start of last week, the Aussie could fall further to yearly lows around 0.6460. Overall, only a break of 0.6620 (yesterday’s ‘strong resistance’ at 0.6635) would suggest that the Aussie will not fall further.
