Ella 
Today, analysts and market consensus expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The slowdown in the job market and economic activity since the June meeting should further bolster confidence that the deflationary process is on track, especially given the slowdown in wage growth.
Norway has released a regional network survey report, providing information on capacity utilization, which may determine the information released by Norges Bank on September 19. Although Norges Bank advised markets in June against speculating on rate cuts this year, recent domestic and global developments have significantly increased the likelihood of a rate cut in 2024. If there is a significant shift in capacity utilization indicators, we stand ready to adjust our current call for Norges Bank to not cut interest rates for the first time until March 2025.
Sweden releases CPI for August. We expect CPIF inflation to fall sharply to an annual rate of 1.1% in August, 0.6 percentage points lower than the Riksbank’s forecast. Our forecast for CPIF (excluding energy) of 2.1% per annum is very consistent with the Riksbank’s view. If the forecast is correct, the focus will be on how the Riksbank will handle this outcome in monetary policy.
