U.S. Recession Risk Recedes, Mexican Peso Bottoms Out

The Mexican peso (MXN) edged higher among the most actively traded currency pairs on Friday after bottoming out on Thursday, breaking out of a three-day losing streak.

Thursday’s release of Chinese economic growth data that was no worse than expected mixed with strong U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data, helping bulls slowly turn the peso tanker around. Chinese data boosted market confidence, providing a mild pushback for the Mexican peso, while strong U.S. data supported the peso as the U.S. market is important for Mexican exports.

Still, headwinds against the peso are likely to continue. These factors include former President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of up to 300% on Mexican auto imports; the widespread belief that Mexico is facing an economic slowdown (a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report this was confirmed); political risks from constitutional changes that markets do not like; and continued concerns about budget deficits.

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