Ella 
190
Is the SNB rate hike cycle over?
The Swiss franc reversed course last week, giving up some of its early July gains against the dollar as yield spreads widened in favor of the dollar and euro. Unlike in 2011, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+ from AAA, the Swiss franc did not profit from it.
On the data front, Swiss inflation unexpectedly fell, raising doubts over whether the SNB’s tightening cycle is over. No further rate hikes from the Fed and ECB in September, and even if they don’t, their “higher and longer” policy outlook should prompt a rally in USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, provided stocks and credit don’t crash .
EUR/CHF is seasonally mixed in August, but USD/CHF is bullish.
