AUD/USD maintained its decline during the first half of Friday’s European session and is currently trading near the 0.6425 area, down approximately 0.40% throughout the day.
Spot rates remain close to the lowest levels since August hit on Wednesday and appear vulnerable, although bearish traders are choosing to wait for more clues on the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before placing new bets. Therefore, market focus will remain on the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. The crucial jobs data will provide guidance for Federal Reserve policymakers at their December meeting and drive demand for the U.S. dollar, providing fresh impetus for AUD/USD.
Expectations for a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and a slight deterioration in global risk sentiment ahead of key data risks have helped limit the dollar’s recent slide to three-week lows and are detrimental to the Australian dollar, which is considered a risk currency. In addition to this, rising bets on an early interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), coupled with weak domestic GDP growth data released earlier this week, also provided fuel for AUD/USD’s decline.
Beyond that, ongoing geopolitical tensions, China’s economic woes and worries about US President-elect Donald Trump’s lingering trade tariffs suggest the risk-sensitive Aussie has the least downside resistance . Therefore, any attempted recovery may still be viewed as a selling opportunity and may disappear quickly. However, AUD/USD looks set to post a weekly loss and potentially post its lowest weekly close since 2024.
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