Dollar retreats ahead of key U.S. inflation data

Here’s what you need to know on Thursday (August 10):

The dollar struggled to recover early Thursday as investors continued to sit on the sidelines, awaiting the all-important U.S. consumer price index (CPI). The index remained in negative territory below 102.50 after falling slightly on Wednesday. The U.S. is to publish a report on initial jobless claims and a number of Fed policymakers are due to speak later.

The annual rate of CPI in the United States is expected to rise by 3.3% in July, compared with the previous value of 3%. Ahead of the inflation data, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed markets were pricing in a more than 25 percent chance the Fed would raise interest rates again this year.

Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note held steady near 4 percent, while U.S. stock futures traded in positive territory, despite concerns about an escalating conflict between the U.S. and China. U.S. President Joe Biden signed into law late on Wednesday the bill restricting U.S. investment in certain Chinese entities. In this regard, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce said: “We hope that the United States will respect the laws of the market economy and the principles of fair competition, and not artificially hinder global economic and trade exchanges and cooperation, and not set up obstacles for the recovery of the world economy.

EUR/USD continues to rise towards 1.1000 after modest gains on Wednesday. The ECB’s monthly economic bulletin will be published later.

GBP/USD closed lower for a second day in a row on Wednesday, but held steady above 1.2800. The currency traded within a narrow channel for Thursday. The ONS will release its second quarter GDP report on Friday.

USD/JPY continued to rise and hit a one-month high near 144.00 on Thursday. Japanese data showed that PPI rose by an annual rate of 3.6% in July, the previous value was 4.1%, and the market expected 3.5%.

Gold extended its weekly losses and fell below $1,920 on Wednesday for the first time since July 11. XAU/USD remained calm on Thursday, trading in a tight range below that level.

After failing to break above $30,000 on Tuesday, bitcoin is trading slightly lower against the dollar and is currently hovering around $29,500. Ethereum held steady near $1,850, almost flat on Wednesday.

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