Ella 
USD/INR struggled to capitalize on a solid bounce overnight from the 82.60-82.55 area or one-week lows and encountered fresh supply during Friday’s Asian session. Spot prices are currently trading around 82.75, down 0.15% on the day, but are still far from Wednesday’s more than six-month highs.
The decline could be due to a slightly weaker US dollar (USD) and technical selling after failing to break above the 83.00 round-figure mark this week. In the bigger picture, the pair has been trading in a similar range for the past week. This could be seen as a bullish consolidation phase in the context of recent gains from the 81.70 area or the July swing low.
On the other hand, a subsequent break below the overnight swing lows of 82.60-82.55 could attract fresh longs around the all-important 200-day SMA around the 82.20 area. This should limit the exchange rate decline near the 82 mark. The latter should act as a pivot point, and a decisive breakout could favor bearish traders and pave the way for further declines.
The downtrend could then drag USD/RUP below the 81.75 area or the July swing low, with the next relevant support near the 81.50 area. Spot prices could eventually fall to test below the 81 area or the yearly low hit in January.
