USD/INR strengthens on month-end dollar demand

The Indian rupee (INR) lost momentum on Thursday. Concerns over potential tariff retaliation and rising month-end U.S. dollar (USD) demand from importers weakened the Indian currency. In addition, rising crude oil prices also added downward pressure on the Indian rupee as India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer.

Nonetheless, a positive outlook for domestic equities and a pickup in foreign capital inflows could boost the local currency. Any significant depreciation of the Indian rupee would likely be limited by foreign exchange intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Looking ahead, weekly U.S. jobless claims, final fourth quarter (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) and pending home sales data will be released later on Thursday.

Indian rupee remains vulnerable to global factors

Foreign investors have bought more than $2 billion of Indian stocks in the past four days, while bond inflows have exceeded $3 billion so far this month.

Late Wednesday, Trump signed an order imposing a 25 percent tariff on auto imports. Trump added that the tariffs would take effect on April 2, with the United States beginning to collect them the next day.
According to Reuters, Trump will allow auto parts imports to get up to a month’s reprieve from his proposed 25% auto tariffs.

U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.9% in February after increasing 3.3% in January (revised from 3.1%), according to a report from the U.S. Census Bureau on Wednesday. The figure was better than the market’s expectation of a 1% decline.

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