Ella 
Yesterday we expected the euro to trade between 1.0870/1.0915. Surprisingly, volatility spiked. After rising to a high of 1.0930, the euro fell to a low of 1.0831 before closing at 1.0844 (-0.44%). Momentum gained from the sharp decline, and the euro could move lower today. A clear break below key support at 1.0830 could lead to a drop to 1.0790, after which the risk of a rebound would increase. Resistance lies at 1.0870, then at 1.0890.
Next 1-3 weeks: We emphasized yesterday that “downward momentum is starting to fade, but temporarily. Only a break above 1.0930 would indicate that the euro is not ready to fall to 1.0830.” We did not expect the euro to rise to 1.0930 (the euro did not significantly rise above this level) , then fell sharply and approached 1.0830 (as low as 1.0831). Downside momentum has been ‘increasing’ and a breach of 1.0830 is possible. The next level focuses on important support around 1.0790. On the upside, ‘strong resistance’ levels moved slightly lower from 1.0930 to 1.0915. A breakthrough of this level means that the euro’s decline has stabilized.
