EUR/SEK: A gradual decline before the end of the year is highly likely

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EUR/SEK rose above 11.90 last week and hit a new high with focus on 12.00. We think this week’s pullback is mainly technically driven.

Keep an eye out for Nvidia’s (Nvidia) quarterly earnings report today. The Swedish krona is typically the G10 currency most correlated with U.S. tech stocks. While a weaker euro is helping to limit EUR/SEK gains for now, a disappointment in US tech stocks could trigger another rally in EUR/SEK.

For now, if a break above 12.00 is not our base case, we think EUR/SEK is more likely to fall gradually towards the end of the year – albeit with stumbles.