The forex market is showing mixed signals as traders closely monitor key currency pairs and commodities heading into the week of July 5th to 10th, 2026. Experienced technical analyst Christopher Lewis provides insight into the current trends and potential movements in major pairs like Bitcoin, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, as well as precious metals and the Nasdaq 100 index.
Bitcoin has seen a rally recently, finding support near the $60,000 level. However, caution remains due to previous sharp declines. Analysts suggest that while a rebound above $65,000 could signal strength, a drop below the recent weekly candle’s low might open the door for Bitcoin to test $50,000 again. This cautious stance reflects ongoing uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.
The EUR/USD pair has been fluctuating around the 1.14 support level throughout the week. Weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data has reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, giving some relief to the euro. Yet, a break below the previous week’s low could push the pair down to 1.12. On the upside, rallies remain tentative until a clear daily close above 1.15 is observed.
The New Zealand dollar showed strength earlier in the week but appears to be losing momentum by Friday. Given that New Zealand’s central bank has maintained a less hawkish stance compared to others, signs of exhaustion in NZD/USD could present short-selling opportunities if US dollar strength resumes. The formation of a shooting star candlestick on Friday reinforces this cautious outlook.
USD/CAD has been relatively sideways but somewhat stretched as economic conditions in Canada remain challenging. Despite weaker jobs data in Canada, analysts believe the US dollar will likely maintain an edge over the Canadian dollar. Any pullbacks toward the 1.40 level may attract buying interest amid ongoing market noise.
The British pound has been notably strong this week, breaking above 1.33 and testing resistance near the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). A daily close above last week’s high around 1.34 could open a path toward 1.35. The pound’s resilience against the US dollar suggests it may benefit further if the greenback weakens, though shorting this pair is not currently advised.
In commodities, silver continues to experience volatility with resistance near $60 acting as a psychological barrier. Recent lows and failure to break above the 50-week EMA near $64.36 suggest rallies might be short-lived and offer selling opportunities.
Gold has shown signs of recovery over recent weeks and could move higher if it breaks above its 50-week EMA, targeting around $4,400. Conversely, a decline below $3,900 might lead to further losses toward $3,500. The US dollar’s direction will play a significant role in gold’s next moves.
Finally, the Nasdaq 100 index rallied through much of the week despite being closed on Friday due to market holidays and non-farm payroll announcements showing disappointing results. The market appears to be consolidating after strong gains in previous months. Buying on dips remains a favored strategy for traders anticipating sideways movement in coming sessions.
Overall, this week’s outlook for the forex market highlights cautious optimism with critical levels serving as key decision points across currencies and commodities alike. Traders are advised to watch for clear breaks or rejections at these technical thresholds while managing risk carefully amid ongoing volatility.
