Ella 
The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks was held last Friday night. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech, which began with a blockbuster – “We will carefully decide whether to raise interest rates again”, this sentence seems relatively plain , but actually properly emphasized the existence of interest rate hike expectations, because maintaining interest rate hike expectations is the main tactic of the Federal Reserve at the current stage, and Powell, as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, could not be more appropriate to emphasize this matter through the annual meeting of global central banks.
Why the Fed must maintain interest rate hike expectations? The answer is that at the current stage, the Federal Reserve can only stimulate market nerves by maintaining interest rate hike expectations, so as to keep the market’s attention and favor on the dollar, so as to prevent capital outflows as much as possible, and lock in more international liquidity to stay in the dollar system. Not an outflow to other monetary systems (you get the idea).
Why does the Fed want to keep liquidity in the US dollar system as much as possible? the reason is simple. Because more liquidity is retained, it can effectively help the U.S. economy, slowly promote or maintain the current situation of the U.S. economy as much as possible, so as to ensure that the U.S. economy will not have problems (recession), and it is also possible for the future Cut interest rates to prepare the groundwork.
Although liquidity can be strongly locked up by raising interest rates, and global liquidity can even be harvested through the rise of the dollar, after all, the current Fed interest rate is already very high, which makes the marginal effect of raising interest rates weaker and weaker, but the side effects are getting worse. Big, so it is actually very difficult for the Fed to raise interest rates further, because it is not just as simple as raising the interest rate by 25 basis points, but it is more of a negative stimulus to the U.S. economy, and high interest rates have a deterrent effect on economic development, so the Fed It is very difficult to raise interest rates further, but it is necessary to lock liquidity in the US dollar system as much as possible. Therefore, maintaining the expectation of raising interest rates has become inevitable and the most appropriate way at the current stage.
