In early European trading on Tuesday, AUD/USD hit a one-week low near 0.6395. The pair confirmed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s on-foot stance and cautious view on economic growth and inflation.
Technically, the pair, a risk barometer, extended its intraday break above the 10-day EMA while bears attacked two-week rising support.
It is worth pointing out that the exchange rate cannot break through the level of 0.6500 at the end of May and early June. At the same time, MACD is about to form a dead cross, which also makes AUD/USD hopeful to break through the short-term support line of 0.6400.
However, the RSI below 50 indicates that the pair will continue to be under pressure, focusing on the rising support line from October 2022, close to 0.6370, which is an important support level that should be watched. The previous month’s low of 0.6365 also acts as downside support.
Conversely, a daily close above the 10-day EMA at 0.6450 would not invite AUD/USD bulls to enter the market, as the falling resistance line since July 13 is around 0.6380, challenging further gains for the pair.
Afterwards, the aforementioned resistance area, including the levels recorded in May-June, near 0.6500, will be of interest.
Overall, AUD/USD is likely to fall further, but holding on to key support lines, its downside appears limited.