NZD/USD: Fall likely to continue in the short term

We noted yesterday that “barring a break above 0.5910, NZD/USD is likely to fall to 0.5840 before stabilizing. However, NZD/USD is trading within a range between 0.5860 and 0.5903. NZD/USD’s weakness does not appear to be stabilizing. We continue to believe that NZD/USD is likely to fall to 0.5840 before stabilization is possible. Only a move above 0.5900 (with minor resistance at 0.5885) would mean that the weakness in NZD/USD has stabilized.

Outlook for the next 1-3 weeks: Our update from yesterday (September 6th, when the price was 0.5875) still stands. As we have highlighted, the rapid build-up in momentum following Tuesday’s sharp decline could lead to further weakness in NZD/USD. Still, it remains to be seen whether major support at 0.5800 is within reach this time around. As long as NZD/USD remains below 0.5945 (the “strong resistance” level is unchanged from yesterday), downside risks will not change.

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