Ella 
Hawks (45%): 25 basis points rate hike, dovish guidance
A 25 basis point rate hike and a slightly toned down press statement. President Lagarde reiterated the importance of continuing to rely on data but softened her rhetoric on further rate hikes, suggesting the bar for further increases is now higher. EUR/USD will rise by 0.50%.
Base case (50%): Stay hawkish
The Council announced a standstill, but the wording in the press statement remained similar to July. President Lagarde’s language in the communiqué was similar to July and reiterated that future decisions would depend on the data. EUR/USD will rise by 0.25%.
Dovish (5%): Stay dovish
The Board of Governors announced a pause and softened its language slightly in a press statement, suggesting the bar for resuming rate hikes was high. President Lagarde reiterated the need to continue to rely on data when making policy decisions, but said a material upside surprise would be needed to raise rates again. EUR/USD will fall by 0.60%.
