USD/CNH fell sharply -0.40% (NY close at 7.2705) which was surprising (we expected a sideways trade). Despite the relatively large decline, the downward trend has not improved significantly. That said, barring a break above 7.2910 (with slight resistance at 7.2850), the pair is likely to fall below 7.2600. The next important support at 7.2390 is unlikely to emerge.
Next 1-3 weeks: After the exchange rate fell sharply to a low of 7.2921 on Monday, we emphasized in our latest report since Tuesday (September 12, spot price 7.3035): “While it is still premature to expect a major reversal, But a sharp pullback could extend to 7.2600. Gaining momentum suggests a break below 7.2600. The next support is at 7.2390. On the upside, a break above 7.3200 (previous “strong resistance” was 7.3520) would indicate ongoing downward pressure. has weakened.