USD/MXN struggled to gain any meaningful traction in Asia on Friday and stayed close to the 1.5-week lows of 17.10-17.05 hit the previous day.
The above area represents the 61.8% retracement of the rally since August’s swing lows and should currently serve as a key pivot point for day traders. At the same time, technical indicators on the daily chart have just begun to enter negative territory, supporting the exchange rate to continue its decline over the past week.
However, before betting on further declines, one should be cautious to wait for it to effectively fall below the 50-day SMA near the 17.00 mark. Spot prices will then fall below intermediate support at 16.90 and challenge the multi-year lows hit in August near the 16.70 area. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a new trigger for bearish traders.
On the other hand, any meaningful rebound may now face strong resistance and remain blocked by the confluence of 17.20-17.25, including the 50% retracement and the 100-day SMA. The next relevant resistance is near the 38.2% retracement level at the 17.35 area, above which the pair could break through the 23.6% retracement level at 17.45-17.50 and retest the multi-month top near the 17.70 area.