Ella 
Yesterday we expected the euro to consolidate between 1.0645/1.0695. The euro subsequently traded within the 1.0653/1.0698 range and closed at 1.0690 (+0.33%). The underlying tone has stabilized, and there is room for the euro to rise slightly today. However, any gains are unlikely to break above the strong resistance at 1.0730. On the downside, a break below 1.0655 (with minor support at 1.0675) would suggest that the current mild upward pressure has weakened.
Next 1-3 weeks: After the euro plummeted to a low of 1.0629, we highlighted a sharp increase in downside momentum in our latest narrative last Friday (September 15, spot price was 1.0640). In our view, the euro “has probably returned to weakness, but it remains to be seen whether it can hit the March low near 1.0515 this time. The downward momentum is starting to weaken. In order to maintain momentum, the euro must break and stay below 1.0630, otherwise further declines are possible The resistance will decrease rapidly. On the contrary, if the euro breaks through 1.0730 (the “strong resistance” level is the same as yesterday), it also means that the euro will not weaken further.
