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The NOK may find some support in the short term, but a longer-term recovery will depend on external factors.
Norges Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with its August guidance. We do not think policymakers will pre-commit to a rate hike in November. However, they are likely to at least signal the risk of another rate hike by revising their rate forecasts.
This outcome should be broadly supportive for the NOK, but we continue to believe the krone will respond primarily to U.S. economic activity data and general market conditions going forward.
In the short term, 11.50 is likely to continue to be an important level for EUR/NOK.
