U.S. non-farm payrolls outlook: September non-farm payrolls report expected to show broadly stable job market

U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to 9.610 million in August, the largest increase in more than two years, bolstering expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the final time this quarter. JOLTS job vacancy data points to continued tightness in the U.S. labor market, which could provide some leeway for the Federal Reserve to further tighten policy.

Following the September policy meeting, several Fed policymakers backed the argument for “longer-term interest rate hikes” as the U.S. economy showed encouraging resilience.

The U.S. dollar index hit an 11-month high above 107.00 on hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, while U.S. Treasury yields challenged 16-year highs.

However, U.S. labor market data released on Wednesday were less optimistic and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in November fell to 23% from about 31%, triggering a long-awaited pullback in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

The latest Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed that only 89,000 new jobs were created in the U.S. private sector in September, down from the upwardly revised 180,000 in August and well below expectations of 153,000. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) services purchasing managers’ index fell to 53.6 in September from 54.5, although in line with expectations.

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