It may take economic stagnation to return to 2020-2021 low interest rate levels

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10-year Treasury yields still have potential to rise under Fed scenario

We find that if the economy develops in line with the Fed’s forecast, the 10-year Treasury yield will rise above 5% in 2024 before gradually declining to the 3-4% range over the next few years.

With inflation rising back to 5%, the 10-year yield would peak at nearly 6.1% in December 2024 before slowly falling back to around 4.5%.

In a stalled economy, 10-year yields would begin to decline in 2024 and continue to fall to 1% in subsequent years.