Ella 
167
The base case scenario is a mild U.S. recession by the middle of next year, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to fall to 3.7% by the middle of next year.
If the US economy does not land, USD/JPY may be slightly below 150 by mid-2024. If the US economy does not land, USD/JPY may be slightly below 130. Under our basic assumptions, USD/JPY may be slightly below 150. Below 140.
According to our interest rate forecasts, EUR/USD could reach 1.15 by mid-2024 under our base case (mild recession) economic outlook, and 1.02 under our “no recession” case. A hard landing would cloud the outlook as the initial reaction would be a temporary breakdown in the relationship between EUR/USD and interest rates.
