Ella 
The most important U.S. economic event will be the September retail sales data. Based on the early release of auto sales data, auto and parts dealers should make a positive contribution to the auto sales data. Spending at gas stations is also likely to rise, reflecting higher gas prices. Overall, total retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4%.
Industrial production data for September will also be released this week. Manufacturing output is likely to contract this month as a UAW strike threatens to reduce auto production. Utility prices, which were boosted by warmer temperatures in July and August, may also weigh on the data. Declines in these indicators could lead to a 0.5% drop in overall industrial production.
We expect housing starts to rise to 1.44 million units (annualized quarterly) this month, with multifamily starts rising sharply.
Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday. The central bank’s latest Beige Book will also be released.
A drop in Canadian gasoline prices likely contributed to a 0.1% decline in the CPI in September (not seasonally adjusted). If the Bank is correct, annual inflation will fall to 3.8% from 4.0%.
Retail sales data for August will also be closely watched. Gasoline station sales are expected to rise sharply in the month, driven by higher oil prices, but this may be offset by lower spending in other categories, particularly on housing. As a result, overall retail sales are likely to decline by 0.3%.
Manufacturing sales data for August will also be released this week. Manufacturing sales are expected to rise 1.0% on a monthly basis, led by gains in the petroleum/coal products and food sub-sectors.
