AUD/USD: Difficult to rise near 0.6530, focus on US PPI

AUD/USD remained under pressure in Asia as investors worried that China could slip into deflation and hawkish comments from Fed policymakers. The exchange rate is currently trading around 0.6525, up 0.14% on the day.

Still, San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly said on Thursday that there is still a lot of information to evaluate and that it is too early to predict whether additional rate hikes or a prolonged stance will be needed. This limits the upside for the Australian dollar and acts as a headwind for AUD/USD. On Friday, market participants will await the release of the U.S. producer price index (PPI) during the North American session. The figure is expected to rise to 0.7% annually from 0.1%. Also, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Survey will be released during the US session.

Technically, AUD/USD is trading below the declining 50-hour and 100-hour exponential moving averages (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting the least resistance to the downside.

A breakout of 0.6540 (the middle of the Bollinger Band) with follow-through buying could pave the way for Aussie to rise to the next resistance level at 0.6575. This position includes the upper rail of the Bollinger Band and the 50-hour EMA. If it rises above the latter, the next upward target is 0.6620 (100 hour EMA), and the final key resistance is at 0.6700 (psychological integer mark).

On the other hand, 0.6500 acts as a key support level, which is the bottom of the Bollinger Band, the August 3 low and the psychological round number threshold. A break below the latter intraday could see the Aussie head towards 0.6460 (31 May low). Further down, the next stop is 0.6400 (the confluence of the psychological round number and the November 2022 low).

It is worth pointing out that the Relative Strength Index is below 50, temporarily challenging the pair’s short-term downside.

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