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We expect the ringgit to remain range-bound in the near term.
While a positive correlation with the yuan may provide some support to the ringgit, it is unlikely to reverse depreciation pressure from a strong dollar and high U.S. bond yields.
We expect the ringgit to appreciate around 4% against the US dollar in 2024, driven by reliance on economic activity, improving chip exports and US dollar weakness over the medium term.
USD/ringgit forecast: -4.65 in Q4 2023; 4.60 in Q1 2024; 4.55 in Q2 2024; 4.50 in Q3 2024.
