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The Indian Rupee edged lower on Wednesday due to increased demand for the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, the prolonged narrative of higher US interest rates has driven US Treasury bond yields to multi-year highs, providing support to the currency pair. Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East could also lead to higher oil prices, impacting Indian importers.
However, Shaktikanta Das, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), stated on Tuesday that India’s growth momentum remains strong, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 is expected to exceed expectations. Das also mentioned that geopolitical risks pose the greatest challenge to growth. Nevertheless, he expressed confidence that India is better positioned than other countries to handle potentially risky situations.
Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee maintains a bearish outlook within a familiar range
The Indian Rupee is trading with slight losses today. The USD/INR pair is moving within a well-known range of 83.00–83.35. However, the technical analysis indicates that the bullish bias remains intact as the pair remains above the 100- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the daily chart.
The key resistance level is situated at the upper boundary of the trading range at 83.35. A convincing breakout above this level will trigger a rally towards the year-to-date (YTD) highs at 83.45. Another upside level to monitor is the psychological round figure at 84.00. On the other hand, the combination of the October 20th low and the round figure at 83.00 serves as a critical support level. Any sustained selling pressure below 83.00 would open the path to the September 12th low at 82.82, followed by the August 4th low at 82.65.
