USD/JPY faces further near-term downside risks

UOB Group economist Lee Sue An and market strategist Quek Ser Leang pointed out that USD/JPY remains weak and could extend losses to the 137.15 level in the coming weeks.

We expected USD/JPY to weaken yesterday. However, we said, “It remains to be seen whether there will be enough momentum to take USD/JPY to the next major support level at 139.00. We do not expect USD/JPY to continue to accelerate lower as it plummets to 138.15. The excess decline has been severe Oversold, but we do not rule out further weakness. However, a clear break above 137.15 today would be surprising. There is another support level at 138.00. Initial resistance is at 139.20, followed by 139.70.

Outlook for the next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (July 12, when the price was 139.95), we emphasized that “the sharp and rapid decline in USD/JPY is accelerating”. We added, “The next target level is 139.00, followed by 138.45. While our view of the acceleration to the downside proved correct, we don’t fully expect USD/JPY to break below these two levels so quickly ( NY session as low as 138.15). The dollar weakness that started Monday is a serious continuation. Note that USD/JPY is down 4.3% over the past five days. That said, as long as it doesn’t break the “strong resistance” at 140.50 (yesterday it was 141.40) , we do not rule out further USD/JPY weakness. On the downside, the next level to watch is 137.15.

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