Ella 
The Australian dollar was the best-performing currency on Thursday.
RBA rate hike not a certainty
Data showed that the number of people employed in Australia increased by 32,600 in June, more than double the market’s expectations, after a surge of 76,500 in May. The RBA’s decision to keep rates on hold on July 4 was seen as a “hawkish hold”, with guidance suggesting further policy tightening “may be required”. That will depend on incoming economic data, and based on that guidance, the odds of a 25 basis point hike on August 1 are sure to increase.
Ahead of this meeting, we still have Q2 inflation data next week, so a rate hike is not a sure thing, and softer CPI data may convince the RBA to stay on hold.
Given the jobs data, and considering we already assume that the RBA will hike rates again after pausing in July, we see a higher probability of a rate hike by the RBA, which should support the Aussie in the coming weeks.
