AUD/USD: The third quarter will be stuck in the range of 0.6350-0.6900

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We remain skeptical that the market has shifted towards a decidedly dovish RBA outlook and wary of the possibility of a near-term correction, such as the Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) on 4 August or Q2 in mid-August Wage price index and July employment data.

We remain neutral on AUD/USD with a target of 0.6600 by the end of the third quarter, with fading near the extremes of our 3Q range of 0.6350-0.6900.