AUD/USD: Break below 0.6365 could extend losses

On Friday the Australian dollar traded between 0.6380/0.6428 and closed flat at 0.6405 (+0.05%). We see this as part of a consolidation phase. AUD may trade sideways between 0.6390/0.6450 today.

Outlook for the next 1-3 weeks: AUD’s decline that started late last month is still intact. However, short-term conditions are severely oversold and any further declines may slow down. In other words, for the Aussie to fall further, it must break and hold below last week’s low of 0.6365. As long as it stays below 0.6480 (a ‘strong resistance’ level), chances remain for the Aussie to fall significantly below that level. Looking ahead, the next support below 0.6365 is at 0.6320.

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