CNH gains will be limited and short-lived

The PBOC kept USD/CNY below the 7.30 area. In addition to expressing dissatisfaction with the level of USD/CNY by setting an extremely low onshore fixing (7.1992 last night), the focus appeared to be on funding on Monday, with the implied yield of RMB 1 million soaring above 5 % (the highest since 2018), making shorting the yuan more expensive.

China’s foreign exchange intervention is opaque, but another measure to support the yuan is to cut reserves for foreign exchange deposits.

USD/CNY fell briefly and the USD was broadly higher, but with Chinese authorities cutting official interest rates, we think any gains in the CNY will be limited and temporary.

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