GBP/USD: Now facing downside risks

After briefly rising to a high of 1.2712 last Friday, GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.2578 and finally closed at 1.2590 (-0.65%). As expected, the sharp decline led to increased downward momentum. GBP is likely to weaken further today, but oversold conditions suggest it may not be able to meaningfully break below 1.2545 (next support at 1.2500). Resistance is at 1.2620, followed by 1.2645.

Next 1-3 weeks: In our latest report last Thursday (August 31st, 1.2715), we believed that “GBP has a chance to rise to 1.2800, but the probability of reaching 1.2845 is low. Risks seem to have shifted to the downside. However , as downside momentum has only just begun to build, any weakness may face solid support at 1.2500 (another strong support at 1.2545). On the resistance level, if GBP breaks above 1.2680, it means that the growth momentum has faded.

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