Last Friday, USD/JPY fell sharply, but briefly fell to 144.43 and then rebounded strongly to close at 146.23 (+0.48%). While the pair may rebound further, any upside is likely to be part of a trade higher towards 145.40/146.80. In other words, a significant move above 146.80 is unlikely.
Next 1-3 weeks: Our latest view is from last Thursday (August 30, spot price 146.00). At the time, we believed the pair was “likely to trade in a range between 144.50 and 147.20.” On Friday, the price briefly fell to 144.43 before rebounding strongly. Price action reinforces our view and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 144.50 and 147.20.