EUR/USD: Risk of decline to 1.0720

We expected the euro to break below 1.0765, but this did not materialize. Instead, the euro traded in a relatively tight range between 1.0770 and 1.0808, before closing at 1.0794 (+0.19%). Momentum indicators are mostly flat, suggesting that the euro could trade sideways today, possibly in a range between 1.0770-1.0820.

Next 1-3 weeks: We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (4 Sep, now at 1.0775). As highlighted, downside momentum is taking shape. This could lead the euro lower to 1.0720. Looking ahead, EUR must break and stay below 1.0720 for a sustained decline to be expected. On the upside, if the euro breaks through 1.0860, it means that the momentum built up has faded.

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