USD/CNH now likely to retest 7.3500 area

Today, we believe that the dollar “could further rise, although it is unlikely to reach 7.3500”, and we have pointed out that “another resistance level is at 7.3300”. The dollar did not rise much further, but first rose to 7.3278, then fell to 7.3000, and finally closed at 7.3198 (+0.19%). While momentum has not improved further, we still expect further gains for the US dollar. However, $7.3500 may remain untouchable today. On the downside, a break below 7.3050 would suggest that current upward pressure has weakened.

Next 1-3 weeks: We maintain our view yesterday (September 6, spot price 7.3100) that risks to the US dollar have shifted to the upside towards 7.3500. Upside risks will remain intact as long as the dollar remains above 7.2800.

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