USD/CNY: Yuan under pressure until growth finds support

In late August, the USD/CNY basically hovered below the 7.30 mark, and once broke through the 7.35 mark in early September. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s prospects.

Long term weakness

The yuan will remain under pressure until there are clear signs that the deteriorating economic momentum is improving.

As pressure for RMB depreciation persists, the People’s Bank of China will continue to defend the RMB and control the pace of depreciation.

We predict that USD/CNY will remain around 7.30 in the near term and will fall back before the end of the year. Longer term, we expect USD/CNY to fall below 7.00 next year as we expect the Fed to cut key interest rates in 2024, leading to a weaker dollar.

EUR/CNY is likely to move higher in the coming months and remain elevated into 2024, benefiting from the ECB’s restrictive monetary policy in the period ahead.

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