Anna 
The AUD/USD pair continues to face downward pressure, as indicated by recent price action being capped by the base of a thick daily cloud, currently situated at 0.6531. Additionally, a cluster of daily Moving Averages (MA’s) in a bearish configuration is adding weight to the bearish sentiment.
Bears are testing a higher base around the 0.6500 zone, which also coincides with the Fibonacci 76.4% retracement level of the 0.6442 to 0.6667 ascent. This level has recently withstood several attacks and serves as significant support. A break below this level would expose the key short-term support at 0.6442, corresponding to the February 13 low.
Technical indicators on the daily chart signal a full bearish setup, favoring further weakness. However, the interplay between technicals and fundamentals may dictate the near-term direction.
The recent strength of the dollar stemmed from uncertainties surrounding the timing and pace of rate cuts following disappointing US inflation data. Nonetheless, expectations persist that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will commence easing its monetary policy in June, with three rate cuts anticipated this year.
Market participants are awaiting the release of US weekly jobless claims and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which is expected to provide insights into inflation trends and potential Fed actions.
Notable resistance is observed around the 0.6550/60 zone, where converged daily MA’s act as solid barriers. A decisive breakthrough above these levels could dampen bearish sentiment, while failure to breach higher may reaffirm the negative market structure.
